Albania

Authorise a 90-day diligence and paid pilot inside one compliant Greater Tirana partner bay, capped at ALL3,000,000 incremental capex. Do not lease a standalone site, sell a franchise, count mixed hybrids, open traction batteries or custody damaged packs. Advance only if the active Tirana VIN file, fleet LOIs, 50 bookings, written approvals, 90 paid jobs and four-year payback gate all pass.

Passenger BEVs rose from 362 in 2020 to 10,938 in 2025 [instat_fuel]. The 2025 share was 1.29%. Current 2026 first-registration flows reinforce momentum, but they are not added to stock [dpshtrr_may26]. Mixed hybrid categories remain excluded.

Passenger BEVs, all-road electric vehicles, mixed hybrids, first registrations, zero-kilometre shares, charging points, charger towers and planned sites answer different questions. The report preserves those grains and uses official passenger BEVs only for sizing.

Each scenario compounds the 10,938-unit end-2025 passenger BEV stock for five years to 2030 at 18%, 30% or 45%. The resulting 25,023–70,110 range is an EVS planning envelope, not an official target.

On 10 November 2025 the ministry reported 254 charging points, concentrated in Tirana, while acknowledging missing explicit charging regulation and tariff/resale ambiguity [oshee_charge]. Ten fast-charger towers, twenty simultaneous positions and three further Tirana sites were announced, not counted as live.

Of 847,191 passenger cars, 771,337—or 91.05%—were at least ten years old and 384,506 were over twenty [instat_age]. That supports chassis, tyres, brakes, HVAC and inspection-repair demand, but BEV age and warranty require the VIN file.

TAM applies a 98% active factor and 1.15 annual service events to 10,938 passenger BEVs. SAM then applies the official 34.70% Tirana passenger-car concentration and a 45% independent reach assumption. ALL25,000 ARO is an EVS planning input. Executable SOM is zero.

Prioritise supported used-import BEVs, courier/corporate/rental fleets and evidence-led preventive care. Warranty, recalls and security-coded work stay with authorised channels. Ordinary hybrids do not enter plug-in sizing.

Reuters reported 3,415 BYD vehicles sold in January–May 2026 and growing Chinese-brand visibility [reuters_chery]. This is not a BEV stock ranking. EVS buys subscriptions and training only after the active VIN file identifies supported models.

Connect Drive, Euroasia, Tirana Electric Motors, Sena EV, AutoEuropa and general workshops form the relevant local set [connect_drive] [euroasia] [tirana_electric] [sena_ev] [autoeuropa]. EVS must win on cross-brand evidence, safe scope and fleet uptime—not warranty work.

Tirana held 293,945 passenger cars, 34.70% of the national total, while Durrës held 118,488 [instat_regions]. Fier/Vlorë, Elbasan/Korçë and Shkodër/Lezhë remain referral or clinic corridors until paid density is proven.

A secondary policy summary reports favourable vehicle treatment and zero-emission public procurement [consumer_policy]. No current national cash purchase grant was verified. Every fee, tax and procurement claim needs transaction-date primary confirmation; none enters economics.

Standard VAT is 20% [vat]. The tax authority displays entity/activity bands and a possible automotive-industry rate, but workshop eligibility is not assumed [income_tax]. Economics are VAT-exclusive and before income tax.

Entity/tax registration, automotive-repair DAP, sanctioned use, electricity/load, fire, OSH, labour, environment/waste, insurer and data controls must all be documented [qkb_2025] [repair_certificate] [labour_documents] [akm] [privacy_law].

EVS requires VIN/task authorisation, observed isolation, LOTO, live-dead-live proof, rescue drills, supported tooling, calibrated meters and written quarantine limits. Any missing control stops HV work.

Albania’s 2025 integrated-waste regime expressly regulates batteries, while ADR controls dangerous-goods transport [waste_law] [adr]. A generic recycler is not written acceptance for a damaged traction battery. Phase 1 is non-invasive diagnosis and referral only.

Launch scan/battery-health reports, pre-purchase inspections, charging/12V faults, cooling/HVAC, tyres, alignment, brakes and fleet preventive care. Pack opening, module repair, damaged-pack custody, unsupported coding and retrofit execution are excluded.

EVS supplies SOPs, authorisation, supported-VIN tooling, audits, data and brand controls. The partner supplies compliant premises, base lifts, DAP-qualified local staff and operations. Standalone/franchise capital waits for updated stock and twelve-month cohorts.

At 360 jobs/year, ALL25,000 ARO and 62% gross margin, annual EBITDA is ALL880,000 on ALL3,000,000 incremental capex—a 3.41-year simple payback. The cautious case loses ALL1,820,000. Values precede VAT, tax, finance, depreciation and working capital.

The model fails if mixed hybrids are counted, if temporarily deregistered units are treated as active, or if pack work begins without a lawful route. Supported-VIN tooling, deposits, partner premises and cumulative stop gates are structural controls.

Secure the active VIN/locality file, audit partners, obtain fleet commitments and approvals, prove technical competence, build the ALL price book and run a 90-job paid base pilot. Weekly reporting covers ARO, margin, turnaround, comeback, parts, referrals and safety.

A 91.2% one-year stock growth rate cannot authorise a centre. Market, demand, traction, economics, DAP/compliance, technical competence, battery routing and quality must all pass. Any safety, electrical, insurer or environmental failure stops the affected scope.

The report prioritises INSTAT/DPSHTRR and national authorities, records publication/access dates, separates evidence grains, labels secondary evidence and EVS assumptions, compounds deterministic scenarios, and keeps current executable SOM at zero.

The linked register records title, publisher, publication date where available, access date, URL and use note. Decisive workbooks, dynamic pages and legal texts should be archived in the diligence data room before investment.

CONDITIONAL GO for diligence and one capped Greater Tirana shared-bay pilot. NO-GO for a standalone centre; HOLD franchise rights, regional sites and all traction-pack opening/removal/custody. The case reopens only when every cumulative gate passes.